Many advisory firms talk about their array of tools and resources. Every firm that is worth talking to
has them. The difference, however, is what the advisor does with them. Do they have the insight to use
them properly? How well do they apply them to help you? ACG’s insights may help provide a sense of
our ability to help you achieve success, as you define that term.
“Most kitchens have the same spices in the spice rack. That does not mean everyone is a good cook.”
– anonymous
The growth of the economy drives investment returns, and plain and simple, corporate profits—that is, earnings—drive stock prices. Without an understanding of what drives stock prices, investors are often fearful when stock prices plunge or, ironically, when they are breaking record highs. Here’s some help.
Perhaps the most direct way of connecting the dots between economics and investing is this chart illustrating that what drives stock prices is earnings.
The gray dotted line shows the 7.5% long-term earnings growth trend since 1991. In 2020, actual earnings of the S&P 500 companies were $139.76 per share. Expected earnings in 2021, according to Wall Street analysts’ estimates compiled by Institutional Brokers' Estimate System (IBES), are $200.64 per share and are expected to shoot up to $219.94 for 2022.
The red arrows literally connect the dots to make the forecast clear: The next 20 months’ corporate earnings are expected to rocket much higher.
In this chart, to show how earnings drive stock prices, we added the S&P 500 Total Return index, in the black line to the earnings line in red. This shows the nearly perfect correlation between stock prices and earnings since 1989. The 2021 and 2022 earnings forecasts, in the red dots, have pulled the black line higher.
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